The Kratos Institute has released a new policy brief introducing an early‑warning diagnostic framework to help U.S. policymakers identify and respond to rising political personalization in fragile and transitioning states. Personalist regimes, where power concentrates in the hands of a single leader or elite network, pose escalating risks to U.S. foreign policy, development investments, and security partnerships.

The brief presents the Political Diagnostics Toolkit, a data‑driven model that measures executive dominance, institutional weakening, elite patronage structures, electoral manipulation, and informal governance networks. Piloted in African democracies and hybrid regimes, the toolkit is globally applicable and offers U.S. agencies a clearer, more accurate picture of political realities on the ground.

At a time marked by coups, constitutional suspensions, and expanding authoritarian influence, the brief underscores the urgent need for early‑warning tools that strengthen diplomatic assessments, improve aid allocation, support MCC compact decisions, and enhance strategic competition planning.

The full policy brief is available for download below.