PRESIDENT BIDEN DROPS OUT OF PRESIDENTIAL RACE:

Too Little Too Late?

Writer: Ernest Asamoa- 21st July, 2024

I provide a different view to the uncertainty that surrounds the Democratic party after President Joe Biden on Sunday, July 21 announced that he was dropping out of the presidential race. Before June, 27 2024, President Joe Biden was not performing well in several important polls about the presidential elections; indicative that Former President Trump had been ahead of President Biden and was on course to win the election. Of course, president Biden’s campaign had been hit by several issues including certain domestic and foreign policy positions which had divided his own political party. 

However, the key strategic move had been to call for an unprecedented early debate which would have given President Biden the opportunity to prove that he was the better of the two candidates, but that debate proved to be the last straw that broke the camel’s back, essentially ending his political future. Some significant within the Democratic party publicly and privately made several calls to President Biden after his display at the debate to step down, but he remained defiant, however not for so long. Almost a month after the debate, on July 21, he announced that he was stepping down. Dropping out of the race is a strategic move that does not only allow the Democratic party a chance in this election but also shapes the political future of the party, placing it in a competitive edge for the next eight (8) years, even if they lose the elections in November.

Now that President Biden has stepped down, the Democratic party is faced with two options, winning or losing the national elections. Although President Biden had beaten former president Trump once, happenings after the debate clearly showed that the Republican party with Trump as its lead candidate had the momentum on their side. Trump had survived an assassination attempt on his life just about a week ago and had gone on to be officially nominated as the party’s presidential candidate for the election.

pngimg.com - biden_PNG13

Photocredit: https://pngimg.com/image/107179

At the Republican National Convention, he brought on board people and former opponents in the presidential nominee race for the Republican candidate; some of whom had been his harshest critics. Both Governor Ron DeSantis and Former US Ambassador to the United Nations and Former Governor of South Carolina, Nikki Hailey mounted the platform to praise, support and endorse President Trump. He also selected Senator J.D Vance, one of his critics in 2016 as his vice-presidential nominee. Things look good on the side of the Republicans. There is an aura of positivity, and unity around the party. While on the other side, there was uncertainty and chaos.

President Biden dropping out of the race now present some certainty to the Democratic party going into not just the upcoming elections but also into the future. The Democratic party, their leadership and strategist at this point understand that unless something dramatic happens, despite President Biden not running anymore, the Democratic party has a tall mountain to climb in order to have a shot at winning the November elections. As mentioned earlier, they are behind in most polls. The replacement of President Biden gives them two main significant strategic positions among many others.

The first is that they will have a candidate and a leader to look forward to even if they if they lose the upcoming election. There will be a candidate that have an electoral future beyond this cycle and will be in the position to lead the party even if they are no longer in government. President Biden’s political future was likely going to end with the elections and he would not have had any more significant contributions to make to the party. He would have had four more years should he win, which was unlikely. In addition to this, whoever was going to replace him, wouldn’t have to carry the “baggage” that President Biden had to carry into the elections, based on foreign policy and also domestic issues. At this point that he is not running, the Democratic party will have in a new candidate that will be in the position to compete in the 2028 election cycle when the Republican Party has to nominate a new candidate to run, since Former President Trump would have completed the second term of his tenure; and would be ineligible to run again. Ponder over this question: “If you are going to lose an election anyways, do you run with the candidate that does not have a political future after the current term or create the opportunity for others to stick their heads out even if they may not be able to beat Former President Trump?” The later sounds more reasonable.

The second scenario is that should the new candidate be able to win, then that candidate provides the opportunity for the Democratic party to have another shot at the presidency in the following electoral cycle in 2028, at a time, where the Republican party may decide to probably move away from Former President Trump with a new candidate and maybe new vision for the party. This will strategically give the Democrats the opportunity to run the government for twelve (12) straight years, which will be unprecedented in the contemporary history of American politics.

I always understood President Biden’s reluctant to step down because polls are usually not practically indicative of what will happen during the day of voting, although they offered great forecasts.  President Biden could have bounced back although it appeared unlikely. However, strategically, it appears that the strategist and leadership within the Democratic party have been successful in their quest to make President Biden step down from the race: this move gives them a strategic opportunity to take charge of the future of the party, whether they lose or win the November elections.