TWO WEEKS TO THE ELECTIONS WHAT DO WE KNOW?
This is what we know so far: John Dramani Mahama is likely to win the upcoming election.
He is leading Dr. Bawumia at about 10 percent among people who do not affiliate with any political party and of course has the lead among NDC members. Surprisingly about 3 percent of NPP members have decided to cast their vote for the main opposition leader, while Dr. Bawumia is likely not to flip a lot of NDC affiliated voters.
Those who answered yes to the question “life was not better under the Mahama gov’t”, are about 15 percent more likely to vote for Dr. Bawumia. While those who answered no to the question “life was not better” are about 30% more likely to vote for John Dramani Mahama.
Those who answered yes to the question “life was not better under the Mahama gov’t”, are about 10 percent more likely to voter for Dr. Bawumia. While those who answered no to the question “life was not better” are about 20% more likely to vote for John Dramani Mahama.
NDC is highly likely to receive votes from a small number of NPP members who will likely not vote for their own party.
Among respondents’ answers to the question “is your current condition better?”, those who answered “definitely not” are highly likely to vote for the opposition, John Dramani Mahama. While others and independent candidates appear to be performing better than Dr. Bawumia, with regards to the question.
The pattern of choice observed for the candidates also applies to the parties with regards to the question of how conditions in the last 8 years have been and how that impacts their voting choices. Those who answered that conditions have not been better, are more likely to vote for the national democratic congress, with a significant number deciding not to vote at all and also vote for a third party rather than the NPP.
Most respondent were people with first degrees and diploma; thus, the results here apply mainly to these groups of people, individuals from other demographics can definitely sway the outcome of the election. Here, it is seen that these individuals with education are more likely to vote for John Dramani Mahama, at a percentage difference of about 10 on respondents with university degrees and diplomas.
Respondents within the income bracket of 1,100 to 4,000 cedis are more likely to vote for the NDC, while among those earning less than 1, 000 cedis, the difference is about 3 percent. However, those earning 7,100 cedis and above are equally likely to vote for NPP just as NDC. The difference among high income earners is almost non-existent.
Most respondents see John Dramani Mahama to be more competent than Dr. Bawumia and as a result, are more likely to vote for the NDC.
Observation
After testing for the hypothesis regarding choice of candidate and the various independent variables, it was observed that education is a statistically significant predictor of Candidate choice at a p-value of 0.013. This suggests that individual’s choice of candidates is largely based on their level of education compared to factors such as age, gender, conditions under various governments, party affiliation, competency of candidates and income This phenomenon is being recorded because most of the respondents had at least university education.
Key Take Aways:
1. Most of the respondents were university or tertiary graduates.
2. Among the variables polled, John Dramani Mahama appeared to be doing better among this category of voters in terms of conditions of living now to conditions of living under Mahama’s administration.
3. Also, Mahama appears to be attracting voters from the NPP who are educated and also earn mostly from 1000 to 4000 cedis. While Bawumia, mainly has voters from the NPP.
4. In addition, most people that do not have party affiliation, are also likely to vote for John Dramani Mahama.